The median U.S. retail shrinkage rate is 1.4% of sales, though what counts as "acceptable" varies significantly by retail format and category 1. That median conceals wide swings within a single store: one cosmetics section might run at 3.2% while apparel elsewhere in the same store sits at 0.8% 1. Categories such as cosmetics often run higher than apparel 1.
What the distribution across an estate looks like
Research published by the ECR Retail Loss Group found that shrinkage per store approximates a normal distribution, symmetrical about its mid point, in each of four case study retailers examined 2. For one of those retailers, Company B, the majority of stores fell in the range 0% to 2%, with an average of 0.77% and a small number of outlying stores widening the spread 2. Shrinkage concentrates in specific stores, with a small number of "hot stores" accounting for a disproportionate share of total losses across an estate 2. A low average combined with low variation around it suggests loss reduction practices are being deployed consistently across all stores 2.
A more useful benchmark than the median
The more useful measure is whether a store's shrinkage rate is improving relative to its own baseline and to comparable locations 1. A store at 2.1% that reduces to 1.6% through targeted interventions has recovered meaningful margin, even without reaching the median 1. To compare across firms at all, shrinkage should be reported as a percentage of turnover, alongside reporting at cost price for accounting and at retail price to motivate performance improvement 2. Older stores, and stores longer since their last refit, were found to carry higher shrinkage 2.